Oscar Worthy?

I caught The Dark Knight again this weekend with some out-of-town company who hadn't seen it yet. After three viewings, it still holds up. Definitely looking forward to the DVD release of that. Actually, I think I'm looking forward to the director commentary more than anything else--Chris Nolan commentaries are a bit dry, but very informative if you're interested in film as a storytelling medium.

Okay, here's my outlandish prediction. I think The Dark Knight is going to be the dark-horse nominee for Best Picture at the Oscars in February.

Qualifier: it's way, way to early to be making predictions like this. Oscar contenders don't hit the theaters until November/December, so I'm saying this while having no idea what the competition is going to be. Also, it won't win. But I still think it's got a chance at the nomination, and here's my reasoning:

The Oscars are a political organization as much as anything else. And while they definitely tend to honor the hoity-toity titles, they also like to stay with the pulse of mainstream movie-watchers just enough to not appear as clueless as, oh, say, the Grammys. The dark horse slot is for just such a movie--a mainstream film that was really good, if not exactly what the Academy usually goes for. Hence, Juno gets nominated. See also: Little Miss Sunshine. So why The Dark Knight?

First off, this has been a great summer for comic book movies. Alongside the TDK and Iron Man juggernauts, you've got The Incredible Hulk, Hellboy II, and something else (that escapes me). All successful, all reasonably good, and if you have to pick one of them to truly represent greatness in that genre, The Dark Knight is the pony to bet on.

Second, it's a box office giant. It will probably cap out around $500 million in domestic gross, and that's not something that can just be ignored when it comes time to start handing out awards. That's not to say that gross = win, but there's some correlation there. Titanic was a box office giant, and it swept the awards. So did Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and it did so at a time when nobody believed a fantasy film could win Best Picture. In fact, all three LOTR films had high grosses, and all three were Best Picture nominees.

Third, apart from being a comic book movie, it's a very Oscar-friendly film, technically and thematically. It's a gritty crime drama that explores the notions of right and wrong, rule v anarchy, heroism v villainy. It features a very Oscar-friendly cast, by way of Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine. The movie will probably be up for cinematography (especially with all the IMAX buzz it's generated), an award that Batman Begins won. Also, Chris Nolan is kind of a rising star. Although they weren't exactly swimming in accolades, film buffs talk a lot about Memento and Insomnia.

Last, the Oscars are very much about politics. It's about glad-handing and chumming up to Academy members. There's already a pretty substantial movement on the web and in the media for a posthumous Oscar for Heath Ledger, and if you've seen the film, you know it's not just posturing--his performance, while not the type of thing the Academy usually honors, was nothing shy of incredible. The viral buzz, though not something that would affect the Academy directly, is not something that can simply dismiss. In short, half the work is done already. There's a pretty strong incentive for Warner Bros and Chris Nolan to work the Oscar-circuit on behalf of, not just Ledger, but also all of the technical achievements.

This is even more apparent when you consider the timing of the DVD release. It will most likely hit shelves in mid-to-late November, just in time for Christmas. It will still be pretty fresh when nominations are announced in January, and that can serve as a nice boost to sales--a summer blockbuster with "Nominated for X Oscars including Best Picture" under it's name on the ads just when people are trying to figure out how to spend their Christmas gift-cards.

So, there's my argument. I may be wrong, and who knows, Quantum of Solace may blow The Dark Knight completely out of the water. We'll see in January.