I should know better than to make political predictions or analysis, because I'm genuinely horrible at it. In the past I've supported Mike "I Throw Rocks Into The Water" Gravel and John "Cancer Wife Love Child Debacle" Edwards. Even as I write this I'm drinking from my John Kerry coffee mug. Yeah, 2004 was a tough year.
But if you flip the parties, 2004 isn't all that different from right now. We have a polarizing incumbent with really poor numbers. The people who support him are disappointed, the people who oppose him do so with outright loathing. Yet Bush squeaked out a victory in 2004. How?
Well, a big part of it had to do with his opposition, the aforementioned John "I'm on Kurt's Coffee Mug" Kerry. In general, primary elections mean candidates are playing to their base. Once they've secured the nomination, they race back to the middle, because that's where the undecided voters for the general election live. So who was John Kerry? He was an articulate, personality-deficient, anti-war, liberal elitist with military experience. He was the anti-Bush, almost to the point of parody, because that's what the left wanted. They were so upset with Bush that they nominated his diametric opposite, and he lost because he couldn't steal the middle away from Bush. And also because he looked French. Possibly. Anywho.
Fast forward to today. The GOP nominations have been a contest between Romney and whatever flavor-of-the-week is leading in the polls. Romney is so moderate as to be nearly (note, I said "nearly") indistinguishable from Obama, who despite Tea Party efforts to paint him as a liberal, is painfully, disappointingly centrist. But the GOP voters keep bouncing from also-ran to also-ran, and each is a different variety of anti-Obama.
There's Michelle "Googly Eyes" Bachman, who was the living embodiment of Poe's Law, radically Christian in opposition to Obama's perceived anti-religiousness. Then there was Rick "Brokeback Jacket" Perry, who seemed to be a throwback to Bush more than anything else. Next it was Herman "Our Black Guy" Cain, and finally they seem to be settling more on Newt "I'm Seriously Just Winging It Here" Gingrich, who was written off months ago for his lack of organization and discipline. And staff.
The conventional wisdom for the Dems is that a Gingrich nomination will secure the re-election for Obama. Why? Because he's John Kerry.
This is interesting and all, but what are the broader implications? Well, one could make the argument that the best course of action for an incumbent is to be as partisan as possible. This will energize the opposition to nominate someone who is polarizing in the opposite direction and therefore unelectable. In fact, Obama's strategy of being both centrist and divisive may be his greatest asset.
But what do I know? I'm horrible at this.
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